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| The memory's share in BOM is expected to rise to about 23%. Pictured: an affordable Lenovo laptop. |
The era of the cheap laptop, a staple for students and budget-conscious buyers for decades, may be coming to an end. According to a stark new forecast from the leading analyst firm Gartner, the sub-$500 PC market is on life support and is projected to disappear entirely by 2028 . The surprising culprit? A massive, sustained surge in the cost of the memory and storage that powers our devices.
In a report released late last month, Gartner outlined a perfect storm brewing in the component market. The firm predicts that combined DRAM (memory) and SSD (storage) prices will skyrocket by a staggering 130% by the end of 2026 . This isn't just a minor uptick; it represents a fundamental shift in the cost of building a computer. By 2026, Gartner estimates that memory's share of a PC's total bill of materials (BOM) will jump from 16% to roughly 23% .
Why Your Next Laptop Will Cost More (and Last Longer)
For consumers, this translates directly to higher price tags. Gartner forecasts that overall PC prices will rise by 17% compared to 2025 levels . While premium laptops with higher margins can absorb some of this shock, the entry-level market operates on razor-thin profits.
"This sharp increase removes vendors' ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable," explained Ranjit Atwal, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, in the firm's official announcement . "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028" .
Faced with these higher costs, both businesses and individuals are expected to hold onto their existing devices longer. Gartner's data suggests that by the end of 2026, the lifespan of business PCs will increase by 15% , while consumer systems could stretch by up to 20% . This shift in upgrade cycles will have ripple effects across the tech ecosystem, forcing software companies to support aging hardware for longer and potentially slowing the adoption of new technologies .
One such technology is the so-called "AI PC." The industry has been banking on these new, powerful machines to drive a refresh cycle, but Gartner now predicts that the projected 50% market penetration for AI-capable systems will be pushed back to 2028 .
A Critical Window for the Industry
Gartner notes that the first half of 2026 will be a critical period for vendors and channels to adjust their pricing strategies before component inflation fully takes hold . We are already seeing the impact. Lenovo recently warned partners of impending price changes for commercial devices, and Cisco has canceled compute promotions in response to the rising costs .
"The most contentious topic is, what is the backlog today? Is it going to be re-priced or not?" noted TD SYNNEX CEO Patrick Zammit, highlighting the uncertainty gripping the supply chain .
A Ray of Hope for Budget Shoppers?
While Gartner's outlook points to severe structural pressure, the budget PC market won't vanish overnight without a fight. There are factors that could soften the blow for consumers. Regional pricing strategies, a robust refurbished market, and aggressive promotional offers could keep some affordable options alive . For instance, savvy shoppers might still find deals on components, like the 1TB WD_Black SN850X SSD currently available on Amazon, allowing them to build or upgrade systems more cost-effectively than buying new .
Even so, the writing is on the wall for the traditional budget Windows laptop. If memory prices remain elevated as projected, the next few years will likely see the extinction of the sub-$500 PC, fundamentally reshaping who can afford new technology and what kind of devices they can buy.
Source : Gartner